National Geographic follows a hypothetical teams of scientists in the year 2210 as they set out o learn what led to the collapse of our present day society in this theoretical look into the future. In the documentary film, researchers are searching for an answer for one hunting question how could a civilization that mastered the planet suddenly collapse? Our modern civilization is so advanced and powerful today. Rise of our civilization goes faster and faster and it seems to be unstoppable, but it will not last forever.Sudden collapses were happened to the Nazis, the Romans, and the Mayans, and researchers set a hypothesis that one day our own modern civilization ill also fall apart and our world will decline and collapse like other societies in the year 2210. Jarred Diamond is familiar for me because of the book “Guns, Germs, and Steels” which I had read in the previous class of Economics 330.He presents in the book that “the Rise of the West” was first happened not because of their genomes but because of the influence of geography and environment on societies and cultures.1) Summarize argument Diamond argues that we are facing the critical Junction whether our modern civilization fail or succeed.He mentions that we could learn from the past failing violation and we could avoid collapse of our societies.
His approach differs from traditional historians by focusing on environmental issues rather than cultural issues. By the year 2210, our modern civilization will fall apart due to the issues of water shortage, famine, environmental disaster, and financial ruin.Some experts assume that there is a serial risk of those problems could happen, and the collapse of our modern civilization is much closer than we think. What happened to past great civilization and how they collapse? How those problems are attack to our societies? Past collapse might be Just a collapse of a society or a country; however, our social relations are extended and it across world-space, countries are connected today.
It means that the collapse will be world wide. Diamond and experts examine how our current habit might affect humans’ ability to survive, and how societies choose to fail or succeed.Moreover, they explore whether the key to preventing a global collapse in the future which could be flying alternative to our dwindling energy supply and sustainable resources.
How could we learn from past collapse and avoid a global collapse?2) Evaluation evidence As I mentioned in the previous, the issues will attack our societies such as water shortage, famine, environmental disaster, and financial ruin. Not every collapse is caused by environmental reason, but echo-meltdown is often seen in the history of collapse. If we look back in history, those issues contributed to the collapse of ancient societies.
Diamond uses comparisons to demised ancient societies such as the Nazis, the Romans, and the Mayans. He notes parallels in our cultures with each over taxation for water, foods, and fuels. As first example, in the Nazis, in the erred of 10TH, a thousand years ago, now in American Southwest, there was great civilization called the Nazis. The Nazis built very strong state and built dramatic dwellings. Coach Canyon was the center of civilization of the Nazis. Water was great resource for them, and they even store water for dry season.
However, scientists discover a prove from tree rings that Nazis civilization was hit by unusual severe drain in ADDED which lasting 15 years. People were fighting over the same resource, and eventually people decided to walk away from the Nazis… And Nazis civilization collapsed. Many people could survive by moving into small community called pueblo.
The important key of Nazi’s collapse is that they did not suit the landscape and resources. Second example, the Roman empire was greatest success story until our civilization appear.We are the first generation to ruin the Roman constriction.
The Roman system of government and laws still stands foundation of many modern societies today. Territorial expansion Their territorial expansion across all over the Europe by DADA. The Roman empire build enormous wealth. Rather than oil the Fuel behinds their expansion was present labor and fertile land. Roman engineers and architectures stand today as a testament to the ability and grandeur of this one great civilization.
The Rome had perfect strategy up to the point. The problem of expansion is that it can not go forever.The empire’s fuel supply was dwindling and they faced to energy crisis. It was critical point of collapse of the Roman empire. According to Diamond solving our energy crisis is two things; developing alternative sources and reengineering our cities.
Third example, in the period of DADA, the Mayans once occupied a enormous geographic area in Central America. Maya civilization was even extended to the parts of Mexico, Honduras, and most of Guatemala and Belize. It was even more dense than Los Angels today. People built awe-inspiring temples, pyramids, highly accurate calendars, and mathematics.
Their also created complex social structure and political system. Researchers are searching for mystery of last days in Maya, Copal. One of explanation of the Mama’s collapse is due to the violent warfare. Warfare might be a part of reason of collapse, but it was not cause. People needed to fight over resources to survive. Production of agriculture.
Their agricultural success was changed into their food crisis. The Maya city was way to large and unsustainable population which was unable to provide enough resources to people.They also cut down forests and reached at conflicting point between resources and human demand. By DADA, not just Copal but many of mining cities were largely abandoned. The Amman civilization and other mining cities were collapsed because people were not aware for the limitation of resources.3) Drawing own conclusionFrom the examples of demised ancient societies, we could learn how ancient societies collapsed by water shortage, famine, environmental disaster, and energy shortage. Diamond’s points out “shortage” of resources as a key point to extinction.We have to realize that resources are limited.
Although Diamond’s hypothesis seems to be too pessimistic, I believe that “collapse” need to be taken seriously. Diamond and experts argue that we still have time to choose whether we fail or succeed. In other words, we are standing at the crossroad whether our modern civilization collapse or not. According to a book “Why Nations Fail” by Darn Guacamole and James Robinson, countries differ in their economics success because of their different institutions, the rules influencing how the economy works, and the incentive that motivate people.Extractive institution brings impediment growth and eventually nation fail. Every society need to have inclusive institution to allow everybody to engage in economy on equal footing.
And also inclusive political institution is needed since it gives societies positive feedback which is called virtuous circle. We sure need to provide good education, good laws, and inclusive institutions. Back to Diamond’s mint to avoid a global collapse and to avoid shortage of land, water, and energy, three things came down to me as conclusion.First, we need to control population size to make sure that we can support the population with our resources.
We have limitation of food supply, so if our societies exceeds limitation of supply, we will face to famine. Second, we need to have enough energy and make sure fusion gets up- and-running in the future. Third, we need to be aware of limitation of natural recourses such as water, food, and iron.
Every society must provide for the reduction and distribution of water, foods, and other goods and services.Every great civilization has its defining moment sending men to the moon Transportation and technology Water price skyrocket – prime factor South east Asia – water crisis Selling off water allocation – farmer 1:18 Higher tax imposed to roman citizen Depths trillions of dollars Sudden rise in violent Famine decease Dark-age for reason Famine, decease-; Water shortage, famine, environmental disaster, financial ruin Fail to cooperate, war Somalia Climate change Unlike failure , we have unique advantage transportation
Globalization Scope of modernization education Survival or collapse?
Most of population can acquire information, only small population can acquire little information Our technology and globalization can be powerful forces for solving long term problems, rather than exaggerated to our demise Final realization our collapse came down psychological bad Jarred diamond and experts argue that we still have time to choose whether we fail or succeed Good decision Modern civilization less than 200 years If we choose to solve problems,